2 comments
125 forecasters
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Mar 31, 2018
Closes:Sep 7, 2018
Resolved:Sep 9, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 1, 2018
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
33 forecasters
Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?
30% chance
33
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
94% chance
95