formulating quantitative wisdom delivering precise predictions delivering definitive predictions formulating predictive predictions crowdsourcing quantitative predictions mapping the future forecasting calibrated estimations aggregating predictive wisdom computing definitive estimations predicting contingent contingencies composing probable understanding composing intelligent predictions composing intelligent insights composing predictive contingencies
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge. See related news item.

Articles 4 and 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (underlying NATO) describe the conditions under which NATO should either "consult," or consider itself attacked, upon attack on a member country.

Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (The Economist, NATO, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, NATO). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (NATO). NATO has said a cyber attack could trigger Article 5 in the same way as a conventional military assault (The Telegraph).

Categories: Geopolitics, Series — IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.