Question

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

Resolved:No

6

Total Forecasters125

Community Prediction

1%

(1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

9.7

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Mar 31, 2018

Closes:

Sep 7, 2018

Resolves:

Sep 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 1, 2018

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

2018 Leaderboard

Today there are no real threats in the world, just contrived ones

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Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Mar 31, 2018

Closes:

Sep 7, 2018

Resolves:

Sep 9, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 1, 2018

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

2018 Leaderboard

Today there are no real threats in the world, just contrived ones

OpEdNews•Jul 7, 2025

NATO Chief Weighs In on Military Conscription Across Europe

Newsweek•Jul 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?