Question
When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?
Total Forecasters196
Community Prediction
2099
(Nov 1993 - 2733)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1893 | 1.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | Nov 1993 | — |
| median | 2099 | — |
| upper 75% | 2733 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2999 | 21.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:May 16, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2999
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 4000
Spot Scoring Time:May 17, 2021
Authors:
Opened:May 16, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2999
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 4000
Spot Scoring Time:May 17, 2021