Question

Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?

Resolved:No

25 comments25

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction

(1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.8

Community Peer Score

2.7

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

May 6, 2021

Closes:

May 11, 2021

Resolves:

May 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2021

Economy & Business

Technology

2021 Leaderboard

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

May 6, 2021

Closes:

May 11, 2021

Resolves:

May 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

May 6, 2021

Economy & Business

Technology

2021 Leaderboard

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1060