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Prevalence of immune-evading variants 5 June?

Question

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that have higher transmissibility, cause more severe disease, or that can evade immunity to some extent have been detected and tracked since late 2020.

The U.S. CDC currently defines three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants. For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest:

  • Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are three VOIs: B.1.526, B.1.525, and P.2.
  • Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429.
  • Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are no VOHCs.

According to the CDC "SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions" page, of 30 April there are five of the above variants that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera" — these are: P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, and B.1.526. Combined, these variants made up ~19.4% of sequences for the two-week period ending 10 April. These variants are thought to cause reduced neutralization because of evidence from lab studies, which are cited on the CDC page.

What will be the % prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants thought to partially escape immunity for the two-week period 23 May - 05 June 2021?

This question will resolve on the basis of the first update that shows figures for the two-week period ending 05 June of the "Weighted Estimates of Proportions of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages" table on the U.S. CDC's "Variant Proportions" page. The percentages of variants that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera" will be added up.

If between now and 05 June there are additional variants classified by the CDC as variants that cause "reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera," these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the variants that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.

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