GOP to hold Senate if DC and PR not admitted?

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Question

Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats. On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, posted a tweet that made the following claim (archived version here):

I don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030

If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?

This question resolves positively if:

  • Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before 2029-12-31, and

  • the Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 (the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive).

If Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period the question resolves negatively. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31st, 2029, the question resolves as ambiguous.

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