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Interest in the 2021 UAP report


In 1945, after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, the true nature of the secret Manhattan Project became revealed to the public,

What formerly had been privy to a select few now became the object of intense public curiosity and scrutiny. Manhattan Project officials, however, had no intent to release what they viewed as essential military secrets. To both allay inordinate inquisitiveness and satisfy the legitimate public need to know, officials in early 1944 began a carefully designed public relations program in anticipation of when they would have to announce the news to the world. [...]

Sixteen hours after the bombing, the White House released a statement by President Harry S. Truman, who was en route from the Potsdam Conference aboard the U.S.S. Augusta. "It is an atomic bomb," Truman announced, "harnessing... the basic power of the universe. The force from which the sun draws its power has been loosed against those who brought war to the Far East."

In 2021 a report on UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) is scheduled to be released to the public by the US Government on June 1st. A measure of media and public interest into this report, at the time of the publication, may serve as a guidepost for understanding how important this development is. Will the report be a landmark development in the history of science — as was the revelation of atomic bombs in 1945 — or will it fade from the news cycle within days?

How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?

Two weeks after the initial public information about the UAP report is revealed (whether or not it is released on the scheduled date of June 1st, and whether or not the full report is released to the public), the following indicators will be added together to form an "index" representing the amount of public interest in the UAP report. This index will be used for resolution.

  • One point if the report is mentioned in the English Wikipedia's section "In the news" on its main page.

  • One point if the Google Trends interest in the topic of UFOs reaches at least 300% any prior level in the last 12 months, as determined using the current widget showing the last 12 months of interest on Google Trends.

  • One point if a Reddit post regarding UAPs receives at least 150 thousand net upvotes, as measured by browsing /r/all and viewing the top posts of the last month.

  • One point if President Biden gives a public speech of any kind, whose primary purpose is to provide information regarding UAP revelations.

  • One more point if, in Biden's speech, he says the terms "alien" or "extraterrestrial" (including their plural).

  • One point if #UFO obtains a value of at least 500 on trendsmap during any period.

  • One point if Elon Musk tweets anything about UAPs.

  • One point if anything about UAPs appears on NASA's blog.

  • One point if the S&P 500 closing price falls or rises at least 500 points compared to its pre-report value, for reasons widely considered to be related to the UAP report.

  • One point times the number of articles appearing in Fox News' UFO category during the two week period, divided by 25, with a maximum value of 1. (In other words, take min(1, articles/25)).

Each part of the index must happen during the two week period after the report is released.

If there is ambiguity about one part of the index, as determined by debate in the comment section, it will count towards half a point.

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