During a recent video AMA called Longevity Meets Blockchain - AMA with Aubrey de Grey and Vitalik Buterin, Aubrey de Grey had stated,
A month or so from now, there's stuff I can't talk about, that is happening that will be really seismic in this field. Somebody whose name we all know, and whose name I cannot mention, but who has been talking to me and has been interested in this for more than 15 years is finally going to be doing something.
Aubrey met Bezos at Ted back in 2006 (15 years ago), and Aubrey did mention that this person has known about Aubrey for 15 years. Bezos just "retired" recently as well.
Jeff Bezos has been interested in longevity before. In 2018, CNBC reported that Jeff Bezos was among the investors who backed Unity Biotechnologies. It's also true that Jeff Bezos announced his retirement from Amazon on February 2nd of this year.
Will Jeff Bezos undertake a "seismic" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?
Jeff Bezos is said to have undertaken a "seismic" development in longevity if ANY of the following occur before September 1st 2021, as determined by reliable media,
Jeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to the SENS Research Foundation or the Methuselah Foundation.
Jeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to another organization considered to be close ally of The SENS Research Foundation, in the sense that the organization's website indicates a mission to either (1) find a way to halt, delay, reverse or cure aging, (2) determine the causes of aging. If at least 2 moderators agree that the organization is not a close ally of the The SENS Research Foundation, then it isn't, for the purpose of this question.
Jeff Bezos announces that he is starting a biotechnology company focused on aging, and in particular, a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a "close ally of The SENS Research Foundation", and pledges at least $50 million to the company.
Jeff Bezos invests at least $50 million into a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a "close ally of The SENS Research Foundation."
If the amount donated, pledged, or invested is unknown at the time of announcement, Metaculus will wait until the question can resolve. If Bezos donates, pledges or invests in multiple organizations, the sum is combined for qualifying organizations, and organizations given money after May 15th 2021.
While amounts less than $50 million are plausible, the author of this question does not consider them to be "seismic."