Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Any USG body concludes lab leak by June 2022


Previously, we had this question about the COVID-19 lab leak theory, which many considered to have improper resolution criteria. This question is a less ambiguous version, slated to resolve on June 1st, 2022.

Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?

This question resolves positively in the event that any official body of the US federal government concludes, via an official report published or leaked to the public, that the origin of the COVID-19 coronavirus involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province, before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In case at least two moderators declare that there exists considerable ambiguity about whether the US government indeed concluded that COVID-19 originated in a lab, this question resolves ambiguously.

For the purpose of this question, the federal government is said to conclude a fact if they (1) take it as a given in one of their official reports (2) state that it is "likely", "probable", "almost certain", or some other close synonym of those terms (3) make some other determination as to the likelihood of the the fact, indicating that they believe there is a greater than 50% chance that the fact is true.

In case there is a dispute over whether a word used by the government counts as a close synonym of "probable", a vote will be taken in the comment section below on the question (and which must be clarified, is to be determined purely on the basis of whether the word counts as a close synonym, NOT whether the question should resolve positively or negatively).

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site