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56
58
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58 forecasters
Economy & Business
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Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?
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When will Polymarket launch a token?
Current estimate
11 Oct 2026
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Polymarket "Holding Rewards" falls below 4% before 2028?
50%
chance
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Polymarket availability to US customers
2027
94%
2029
83%
2031
69%
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
5 comments
391 forecasters
USD world's reserve currency through Q3 2028
75%
chance
12 comments
212 forecasters
Trump closes NYSE or NASDAQ before January 20, 2029?
5%
chance
3 comments
44 forecasters
US stock market crash of >10% in any week before 2027?
41.5%
chance
10 comments
60 forecasters
Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
2.4%
chance