Related Questions on Metaculus:
- Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?
- If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?
Puerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit Puerto Rico as a US state, though there has been much disagreement among Puerto Ricans among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.
In a related debate on statehood for the District of Columbia, the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:
“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”
Expecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is almost certain, but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:
We support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.
The Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.
Several referendums have been held on PR's future political status; in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.
If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?
This question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party, including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.
If Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to January 1, 2035, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.
Senators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.
If both elected senators are members of a Democratic Party Affiliate (for example, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), they will be considered Democrats for this question, assuming the Democratic Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).
Senators will be "elected prior to 2035-01-01" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office.