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58
792
forecasters
193
58 comments
792 forecasters
Computing and Math
2 more...
Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
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1.22 years
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Date when AI Passes Difficult Turing Test
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08 Jul 2029
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85%
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General AI solves International Math Olympiad
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08 Aug 2026
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Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?
96%
chance
14 comments
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AI resolving questions on Metaculus
2025
result:
No
2030
70%
2035
91%
2040
90%
2050
96%
11 comments
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AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
5 comments
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IMO AI Prize
2026
78%
2027
17%
2028 or later
3%
2024 or before
result:
No
2025
result:
No