57 comments
792 forecasters
Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?
60%chance
This question is closed for predictions.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 2, 2016
Closed:Mar 1, 2020
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 4, 2016
How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?
1.29 years
(1.07 - 2.37)
1.29 years
(1.07 - 2.37)
41 forecasters
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
11 Apr 2029
(29 Sep 2026 - Dec 2033)
174 forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
85% chance
524