Question

Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?

Resolved:Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction

93%

(89% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 93%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

1.4

Community Peer Score

0.1

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Jun 8, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2032

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 9, 2021

Economy & Business

Health & Pandemics

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Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

63%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Jun 8, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2032

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 9, 2021

Economy & Business

Health & Pandemics

Experimental drug helps patients lose nearly a quarter of body weight in early trials

FOX News•Jun 24, 2025

Monthly weight loss drug helps people lose 20% of body weight, trial finds

NBC•Jun 24, 2025

Ozempic Alternative May Offer Weight Loss Without Injections or Muscle Loss

Newsweek•Jun 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

63%