New Megadonor in EA in 2026

Good Ventures is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes in 2020 and$274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space. Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026? This question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over$250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).

Grants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or Survival and Flourishing, for example.

A donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count).

An organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.

By way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the Gates Foundation, but include Open Philanthropy, Longview Philanthropy and The Life You Can Save as of 2021.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!