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- July 28, 2020
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Forecaster Stats
Level
22 (AIXI.1.2)
Predictions
2956 predictions on 862 questions (557 resolved)
Comments
229 comments on 92 questions
Rank
37th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
2257 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Effective Altruism (33)
- Social issues – Charities (18)
- Future EA Resources (17)
- Politics – US (4)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (4)
Popular Questions
- Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023? (581 forecasts)
- Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025? (444 forecasts)
- Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031? (385 forecasts)
- Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026? (385 forecasts)
- If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations? (288 forecasts)