Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
124
comments
2.5k
forecasters
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
17%
chance
Share
Predict
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Question Info
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Show More
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
traviswfisher
Opened:
Mar 29, 2018
Closes:
Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Mar 29, 2018
Economy & Business
Technology
Space
News Match
Is NASA losing the moon race? SpaceX Starship’s megarocket launching Monday may have answers
CNN
•
Oct 12, 2025
SpaceX preps for 11th Starship launch. When is liftoff, what's planned for mission
USA Today
•
Oct 10, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.1%
chance
4.4k
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft
80%
At least one person
36%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
18%
1 other
15
forecasters
Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?
0.1%
chance
367
Show More Questions