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36 comments
257 forecasters

Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?

1%chance
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
BrianHoltz
Opened:Jul 16, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 16, 2021
Natural Sciences
Technology
Space
Daily Mail logo
JD Vance declares himself 'UFO' lunatic as he vows to pull back the curtain on government secrets
Daily Mail•Nov 3, 2025
Daily Caller logo
‘Technology Is Picking Up Ghosts Underwater’: UFO Tracker Shows Thousands Of Objects Hovering Around US Coasts
Daily Caller•Nov 3, 2025
FOX News logo
UFO tracker maps eerie clusters of unidentified objects lurking beneath US shorelines: 'We're being lied to'
FOX News•Nov 2, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?

0.1% chance
65

Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?

0.1% chance
95

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

1% chance
48
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