3 comments
97 forecasters
Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?
0.1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 26, 2021
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?
4.77 attacks
(1.89 - 22.6)
4.77 attacks
(1.89 - 22.6)
12 forecasters
If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?
26% chance
26
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
66 forecasters