20 comments
92 forecasters
When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?
Current estimate
15 Dec 2027
Authors:
Opened:Jul 4, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2039
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 6, 2021
Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?
90% chance
25
Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?
7% chance
57
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?
50% chance
15