Metaculus

Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

GWP in 2200, in Trillions USD

Created by WilliamKiely and

co-authors

, {{coauthor.username}}

on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

Related Questions on Metaculus:

In Modeling the Human Trajectory, David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.

Their univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.

As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.

What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 USD?

Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the World Bank.

Categories:

Economy – Economic Transition

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.