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Will Doug Ford be elected Premier of Ontario?
The next Ontario Provincial elections will elect members of the Ontario Legislative Assembly, the parliament of Ontario, on June 7th, 2018.
Ontario is divided into a series of 124 ridings. Each riding will elect a member of provincial parliament to represent itself using first past the post voting. The party that controls the most ridings wins the election, although if they do not get at least 63 seats they will be a minority government and will likely have to form a coalition or the government will be dissolved.
The Premier of Ontario is the leader of the party with the most members of provincial parliament elected.
The current most likely candidates for Premier are Doug Ford, leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative party; incumbent Kathleen Wynne, leader of the Ontario Liberal party; and Andrea Horwath", leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party.
Will Doug Ford be elected the next Premier of Ontario in the upcoming election?
This question resolves positive if the CBC reports that Doug Ford won the election. This questions resolves negative if the CBC reports that a different candidate won the election.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.