Question
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?
Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction
0.108 c
(0.0175 c - 0.325 c)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.001 c | 5.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.01746 c | — |
| median | 0.1077 c | — |
| upper 75% | 0.3252 c | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2022
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
193
Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?
13%
What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
0.00221
Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2022
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
193
Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?
13%
What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?
0.00221