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29 comments
41 forecasters

Who will win the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election if Newsom is recalled?

community
4.98
result
Ambiguous
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:Aug 8, 2021
Closes:Sep 14, 2021
Resolved:Sep 15, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 8, 2021
Elections
🏆 2021 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?

80% chance
55

Will California pass a wealth tax before the following years?

2051
42.6%
2041
22.5%
2031
10%
10 forecasters

How many congressional seats will California lose as a result of the 2030 census?

1
40%
2
34.8%
≥3
34.2%
2 others
8 forecasters
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