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Highest GWP in the next Billion Years


In Modeling the Human Trajectory, David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.

Their univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.

As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.

What will be the largest real Gross World Product for the period 2020 through 1,000,002,200, in trillions of 2020 US$?

This question will resolve as the GWP of whichever year in the next billion years (i.e. the period 2021 through 1,000,002,020) has the highest GWP.

Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of economic data, such as the World Bank.

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