Related Questions on Metaculus:
- Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?
- Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?
- Will China land the next person on the Moon?
The U.S. Artemis Program pushed to land U.S. astronauts on the Moon by 2024 under the Trump administration, but this goal is seeming increasingly unlikely. Some suggest the timeline was never really feasible at all.
Most recently, delays with two lunar-exploration spacesuits seem to put the 2024 timeline in even greater jeopardy.
Nonetheless, U.S. officials increasingly view lunar exploration as an element of Great Power Competition with Russia and China, and have strong incentives to keep to their ambitious timeline.
When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?
This question will resolve as the next date that NASA astronauts step on the lunar surface again.
If no such NASA landing occurs by December 31, 2039, the question will resolve as >December 31, 2039.