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18 comments
97 forecasters

When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?

Current estimate
28 Jul 2029
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
crule
Opened:Aug 19, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 21, 2021
Technology
Geopolitics
Space
CNN logo
NASA’s moon landing plan is in flux. Wild ideas are quietly taking shape
CNN•Nov 1, 2025
The Conversation logo
With more Moon missions on the horizon, avoiding crowding and collisions will be a growing challenge
The Conversation•Oct 30, 2025
Associated Press logo
China says it’s on track to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 ahead of space station mission
Associated Press•Oct 30, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?

22 Oct 2029
(06 Mar 2028 - Oct 2031)
22 Oct 2029
(06 Mar 2028 - Oct 2031)
120 forecasters

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.17 people
(0.811 - 4.9)
2.17 people
(0.811 - 4.9)
97 forecasters

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

1% chance
116
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