Question
Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters52
Community Prediction
10%
(7% - 15%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
2.0
Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2021
Closes:Jan 27, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2021
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
46%
Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
1%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%
Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2021
Closes:Jan 27, 2022
Resolves:Jan 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2021
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
46%
Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
1%
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
63%