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End of Islamic Republic in Iran


Related Question on Metaculus:

Iran has been an Islamic Republic since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, in which Islamists led by Khomeini overthrew the monarchy. Today, Iran is one of the few theocracies on Earth, and it is led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini's successor. In recent years, there have been several protests against the regime. The recent elections in 2021 were widely considered to be a sham. They saw record low turnout as well as a record share of protest, blank, and invalid votes after disqualification of many candidates by the Guardian Council, and a landslide victory by Ebrahim Raisi, the preferred candidate of Khamenei. The United States considers the Islamic Republic of Iran to be a rogue state. and has imposed sanctions on it. Nonetheless, the Islamic Republic of Iran has persisted since 1979.

When will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic?

This question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:

  1. There is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

  2. The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is an Islamic Republic. If the state does not have a written constitution then this question will resolve as ambiguous. Note that the Constitution must contain the term "Islamic Republic", inclusion of either "Islamic" or "Republic" on their own is not sufficient.

If this does not occur before January 1, 2122, then this resolves as "> December 31, 2121".


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