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100 Deaths in China/Taiwan Conflict by 2026

Question

The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China invading Taiwan is "growing every day".

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 to January 1, 2026, either of the following occur:

  • There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.
  • There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.

Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2025.

This question will resolve as No otherwise.

In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations.

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