Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters139

Community Prediction

80%

(62% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Sep 25, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2032

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 27, 2021

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

Tesla

'Malicious' AI willing to sacrifice human lives to avoid replacement: study

New York Post•Jun 23, 2025

AI Willing to Kill Humans to Avoid Being Shut Down, Report Finds

Newsweek•Jun 22, 2025

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