FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    2025 inaugurated US pres not projected winner

    Created by Charles on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Charles on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    In the 2020 US Presidential election, major news desks called the election for Joe Biden in the week following the November election. Despite this, a concerted effort was launched using various methods in an attempt to overturn this result, such that betting markets still placed nontrivial probabilities on the result being overturned for much of the next two months until Joe Biden's inauguration.

    This question asks if we will see a situation in 2025 where the newly inaugurated president is not from the party which was called by major news desks as having won the election.

    Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?

    This question resolves positively if the US President inaugurated in 2025 is from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of the following news desks: ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News.

    Categories:
    Politics – US

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.