Question

Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?

Resolved:Yes

74 comments74

Total Forecasters240

Community Prediction

79%

(72% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 79%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

7.8

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Sep 1, 2021

Closes:

Nov 5, 2024

Resolves:

Feb 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 3, 2021

Politics

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Republicans' 2026 Midterm Chances Against Democrats Surge in New Poll

Newsweek•Jun 25, 2025

Democrats' Chances of Winning Back Senate Surge After Murkowski Bombshell

Newsweek•Jun 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Which party will hold a plurality in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

45%