Question

How many of Virginia's 35 local health districts will be described as being "in surge" in UVA modeling slides posted 17 September?

Resolved:12

3 comments3

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction

27.1

(21.1 - 31.1)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	21.11	27.12	31.1
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	21.11	—
median	27.12	—
upper 75%	31.1	—

What was the final result?12

Community Baseline Score

-47.7

Community Peer Score

38.8

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners srinivv

Opened:

Sep 1, 2021

Closes:

Sep 5, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 22, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 1, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 4

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners srinivv

Opened:

Sep 1, 2021

Closes:

Sep 5, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 22, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 1, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 4

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will any flu season before 2032 exceed 14% ED and UC visits being for ILI?

35.4%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%