Question

What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on 18 September?

Resolved:2185

3 comments3

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction

2278

(1987 - 2564)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3500
community	1987	2278	2564	1.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1987	—
median	2278	—
upper 75%	2564	—
Upper bound
>3500	1.1%	—

What was the final result?2185

Community Baseline Score

49.9

Community Peer Score

3.8

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners srinivv

Opened:

Sep 1, 2021

Closes:

Sep 5, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 22, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 1, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 4

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years?

142

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners srinivv

Opened:

Sep 1, 2021

Closes:

Sep 5, 2021

Resolves:

Sep 22, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 1, 2021

Virginia Lightning Round Tournament

Virginia Lightning Round: Week 4

Health & Pandemics

2021 Leaderboard

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years?

142