🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?

Resolved :65.86
7
9
Total Forecasters24
Community Prediction5.86 (4.96 - 6.67)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15
...
...
...
...
4.958
5.862
6.674
0.1%

What was the final result?6

Community Baseline Score
107.3
Community Peer Score
8.2
Authors:
H559
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
Politics
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Iran
South China Sea
War in Afghanistan (2001–present)
Council on Foreign Relations
United States
East China Sea
North Korea

Comments

? comments