The Council for Foreign Relations (CFR) defines a conflict as a critical impact on U.S. interests when the conflict directly threatens the U.S. homeland, is likely to trigger U.S. military involvement, or threatens the supply of critical U.S. strategic resources.
Currently (last updated September 1, 2021), the CFR classifies 5 conflicts as critical.
- War in Afghanistan
- Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea
- Tensions in the East China Sea
- North Korea Crisis
- Confrontations Between the United States and Iran
These 5 critical conflicts can be tracked using the CFR's Global Conflict Tracker. Set view by to "Impact on U.S. Interests" and then look for Critical conflicts, which are circular and highlighted the darkest shade of red, on the map.
What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
This question resolves as the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests, as given by the CFR's Global Conflict Tracker, on January 3rd, 2023, at 12:00 AM.
If the CFR Global Conflict Tracker is unavailable for use at the time of resolution, for any reason, then the resolution will be left up to the Metaculus admins.