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EA Wiki Fraction Written by Volunteers


The Effective Altruism Wiki is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the Effective Altruism Forum. It was launched in March 2021.

Currently, the Wiki is written by both paid and volunteer contributors. The average fraction of content written by volunteers so far is around 15%, based on visual inspection of a random sample of 50 Wiki articles.


This is the first in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.

  1. How many words of content will have been published?
  2. What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?
  3. What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?
  4. How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
  5. What will be the quality of the best articles?
  6. Will the Wiki be "alive"?

By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?

The question will resolve by an estimate of the fraction of words of content contributed by anyone other than Pablo, Leo, and Aaron. The estimation will be performed by clicking on the "random tag" button (found on the sidebar of every Wiki entry), counting the lines with a majority of words contributed by users other than the three listed above, and then counting the total number of lines in the article. The process will be repeated fifty times, and the resolution value will be the result of dividing the first count by the second count at the end of the process.

If the "random tag" button does not exist, a suitable alternative randomizing procedure will be adopted. Note that the sampling is with replacement, i.e. the same article may be selected more than once.

The counting will be done on the most recent version of the article at the time of resolution.

If other people besides Pablo, Leo and Aaron are paid to contribute to the Wiki, their contributions will also be excluded. Contributions by Pablo, Leo and Aaron, as well as by these other people, will be excluded even if they are no longer being paid to contribute content at the time of resolution. In other words, for the purposes of resolving this question, a user is considered to be a paid contributor if they were paid to contribute content at any point between the opening of the question and its resolution.

Effective Altruism

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.