The Effective Altruism Wiki is a wiki about effective altruism and related topics hosted on the Effective Altruism Forum. It was launched in March 2021.

Projects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—appear to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the first of these failure modes; for the second type of failure, see this other question.

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This is the fifth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.

1. How many words of content will have been published?
2. What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?
3. What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?
4. How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
5. What will be the quality of the best articles?
6. Will the Wiki be "alive"?

By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?

To resolve this question, Pablo will select what are, in his opinion, the three highest quality articles, and willing Metaculus admins or moderators (other than Pablo) will select three people whom they consider suitable for evaluating the quality of those articles. The evaluators will each rate each of the three chosen articles on a continuous scale ranging from 1 to 5, with 1 representing "very bad" and 5 representing "very good". The resolution value will be the simple average of these nine ratings.