Projects in this reference class—roughly, works of reference connected in some form to effective altruism—appear to have a rather poor track record. One common failure mode is the relatively low quality of even the best published articles. Another failure mode is their relative short duration: after a period of activity, they stagnate or disappear altogether. This question is about the second of these failure modes; for the first type of failure, see this other question.
This is the sixth in a series of six questions about the EA Wiki, aimed to generate information of potential value to wiki editors, funders, and other interested parties.
- How many words of content will have been published?
- What fraction of total traffic to the EA Forum will be Wiki traffic?
- What fraction of total content will have been written by volunteer contributors?
- How fast will the EA Wiki grow relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
- What will be the quality of the best articles?
- Will the Wiki be "alive"?
By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?
The question will resolve positively if and only if the average daily number of words published in the three calendar months preceding the question's resolution date is at least 20% the average daily number of words estimated to have been published in the three calendar months preceding the question's opening date. We estimate that an average of 250 words/day were published in the months of June, July and August 2021, so this question will resolve positively if and only if an average of at least 50 words/day are published in the months of October, November and December 2022. The word count will be computed following the method described in the resolution criteria of this other question (adjusted for the relevant dates). If the question does not resolve positively, it will resolve negatively.