🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?

Resolved :7877.3
9
9
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction77.3 (74.2 - 79.2)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
74.25
77.35
79.19

What was the final result?78

Community Baseline Score
26.2
Community Peer Score
11.5
Authors:
H559
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Natural Sciences
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Earth science
Geology
Earth
Wikipedia
Volcano

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