Question

Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?

Resolved:Yes

2 comments2

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction

55%

(53% - 56%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

16.4

Community Peer Score

-3.6

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closes:

Sep 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 18, 2021

Metaculus

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What will be the ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%