Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
2
10
forecasters
2
2 comments
10 forecasters
Metaculus
1 more...
Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?
Follow
share
embed
Resolved
Yes
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (2)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
2 comments
5 forecasters
2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard top 10 mean?
Current estimate
47.6 points
11 comments
168 forecasters
AI system beat human pros in forecasting tournament by 2030?
98%
chance
20 comments
723 forecasters
Top bot vs top 5 humans in ACX 2026?
Current estimate
91.3%
55 comments
539 forecasters
Metaculus Existence in 2030
98%
chance
8 comments
30 forecasters
Highest GPQA Diamond Score 2024 to 2027
5 comments
9 forecasters
When will LLMs beat superforecasters at ForecastBench?
Current estimate
17 Nov 2028
3 comments
37 forecasters
"Other risk" to cause (near) extinction
25%
chance
12 comments
48 forecasters
5Y after AGI, life satisfaction?
Current estimate
4.79 score