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    My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
    Created by: SimonM and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Jsevillamol suggests using mean log odds as an improvement over mean forecast.

    Metaculus currently uses the median forecast (which will be the same whether or not we transform forecasts into log-odds or not). Based on the first ~850 questions to resolve, the average log-odds outperformed the median.

    This question asks whether this will continue to be the case over the next 1000 questions.

    Categories:
    Metaculus Itself
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}