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Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?


Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances in the mid term elections this November. They have a durable 6 (or so) point advantage in polling, at least as of late March according to 538.

And a recent win in a special election in Pennsylvania--in a district won convincingly by Trump in 2016--suggests that they have a shot at reclaiming the House.

If they do succeed, an interesting scenario comes into play. Namely, there will be pressure on elected Democrats to take the fight to Trump and impeach him.

Some Democratic strategists think this is a good idea. Others say it would be foolish.

Per Politico:

Polls on the question show as many as three-quarters of Democrats already back impeachment, and one deep-pocketed ally, California megadonor Tom Steyer, has been mounting an expensive pressure campaign across the country to build support for Trump's impeachment. Democratic hostility toward the Republican president seems to intensify daily.

But lawmakers who recall the 1998 impeachment of President Bill Clinton are wary of sparking a political backlash for appearing too eager to remove a president without buy-in from independents and even some Republicans.

We're not here to debate the wisdom (or lack thereof) of such a strategy. We just want to know: do you think they'd follow through and do it?

This question is contingent on Democrats controlling the house. Question resolves positive if the U.S. House of Representatives has a Democratic Speaker, and votes to impeach President Trump before the November 2020 elections. Resolves negative if the House is Democratic at some point between the November 2018 and November 2020 elections and does not vote to impeach by the November 2020 elections. Resolves ambiguous if at no point prior to the 2020 elections do the Democrats control the house.

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