composing calibrated futures computing accurate understanding calculating probable futures generating predictive futures assembling critical predictions mapping the future computing accurate futures calculating critical forecasts modeling definitive understanding assembling contingent predictions delivering quantitative understanding predicting probable understanding exploring intelligent understanding calculating critical estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will May Day protests turn violent?

Spring is here, which means it is time to start planning May Day celebrations. For many, May Day is a time to celebrate the end of winter and ugly weather, and to dance around a pole with colorful ribbon. To others, May Day is better known as International Workers' Day, a day to fight for workers' rights and, often, rebel against capitalism. The 1886 protests that led to the very first May Day culminated in a bomb attack in Chicago, killing at least 11 people and resulting in convictions against 8 anarchists. Ever since, May Day has been marked by sporadic violence, including some violent protests last year.

Will there be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?

Because police violence is often much more clearly delineated than civilian violence, this question's resolution criteria will focus on the former. Specifically, this question will resolve positive if there are credible reports of police using fire arms, pepper spray, tear gas, batons, flash bangs, or any other weapon against protesters. It will also resolve positive if any protesters are killed in an interaction with police, regardless of whether or not weapons were used.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.