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Will May Day protests turn violent?
Spring is here, which means it is time to start planning May Day celebrations. For many, May Day is a time to celebrate the end of winter and ugly weather, and to dance around a pole with colorful ribbon. To others, May Day is better known as International Workers' Day, a day to fight for workers' rights and, often, rebel against capitalism. The 1886 protests that led to the very first May Day culminated in a bomb attack in Chicago, killing at least 11 people and resulting in convictions against 8 anarchists. Ever since, May Day has been marked by sporadic violence, including some violent protests last year.
Will there be violent interactions between US protesters and police on May 1, 2018?
Because police violence is often much more clearly delineated than civilian violence, this question's resolution criteria will focus on the former. Specifically, this question will resolve positive if there are credible reports of police using fire arms, pepper spray, tear gas, batons, flash bangs, or any other weapon against protesters. It will also resolve positive if any protesters are killed in an interaction with police, regardless of whether or not weapons were used.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.