Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Hours a week coders use language models 2026

Question

This question is linked to a fortified essay on Human-Level Language Models. Read the essay to learn more and to see how they're linked.

On August 20th 2021, Robin Hanson tweeted a poll asking,

In Jan 2026 I will do a Twitter poll asking only professional coders to say how many hours/wk they use GPT-X Codex type tools to help them code. What will be their median answer (from a lognormal fit)?

His followers anticipated 15.2 hours for the above poll, or 0.253 hours. How many hours do Metaculites expect?

How many hours a week will coders report using GPT-X Codex type tools in Robin Hanson's 2026 Twitter poll?

Assume that in January 2026, Robin Hanson releases a Twitter poll, or some other poll on any other platform he uses at that time, asking his followers for the number of hours per week professional coders will spend using GPT-X Codex type tools to help them code. This question resolves according to the median answer in his poll, from a lognormal fit.

If Robin Hanson does not release such a poll to his followers, this question resolves ambiguously.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site