Question

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

10

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction

Oct 2039

(Dec 2035 - Nov 2046)

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CDF

	<01 Mar 2023	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>Dec 2050
community	0.7%	Dec 2035	Oct 2039	Nov 2046	18.0%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<01 Mar 2023	0.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Dec 2035	—
median	Oct 2039	—
upper 75%	Nov 2046	—
Upper bound
>Dec 2050	18.0%	—

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 2, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 30, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 4, 2021

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 2, 2021

Closes:

Dec 30, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 30, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 4, 2021