Question

Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?

Resolved:Yes

24 comments24

Total Forecasters181

Community Prediction

90%

(75% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

6.5

Community Peer Score

3.9

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Apr 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2018

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

12 Sep 2029

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Apr 21, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2018

Law

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

12 Sep 2029

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

20%