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Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?
For the purposes of this question, we'll confine Trump's "inner circle" to the following people:
- Donald Trump himself
- Donald Trump Junior
- Ivanka Trump
- Jared Kushner
- Mike Pence
- Michael Cohen
- John Kelly
- Hope Hicks
- Steve Bannon
Note #1: Links go to articles related to potential criminal charges against individuals.
Note #2: Steve Bannon is included on the list, even though he and Trump have had a falling out, simply because of how influential he was earlier in the Presidency.
Will a judge sentence at least one of these people to a jail sentence by Jan 1., 2023?
Resolution is positive even if the person is pardoned, as long as the pardon comes after conviction. We will also count jail time assigned by a judge per contempt of court, etc., if any actual time in jail is spent.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.